Bitcoin Bottom Signals Build Through Boredom As Price Holds Near $64,000

Bitcoin held steady near $64,000 on Tuesday even as spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $211.5 million in net inflows and spot Ether ETFs added $53.8 million. The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,737 and the Nasdaq rose 2.6% on strong AI earnings, while Brent crude slipped below $80 on easing Strait of Hormuz tensions. Wintermute OTC trader Jasper De Maere said the marginal ETF buyer isn’t outright bullish, arguing the recovery case only strengthens if Bitcoin clears $65,000.

Coldcard Theft Sparks Dormant Coin Movement

Glassnode noted Bitcoin trailed the S&P 500 by more than four points during the week. A July 31 theft of 594 BTC, worth about $38 million, from Coldcard wallets triggered roughly 119,000 BTC to move from long-term dormancy within three days, though the coins mostly went into fresh cold storage rather than exchanges. K33’s Vetle Lunde separately tracked seven-day active supply hitting a 2026 high near 890,000 BTC.

Exhaustion, Not Capitulation, Building A Floor

Glassnode’s Seller Exhaustion Constant sits near this cycle’s low, in territory where past bottoms formed. Bitfinex analysts pointed to roughly 155,000 BTC accumulated between $62,000 and $65,000, now the largest cost-basis cluster on record, with 54.6% of supply in profit as of August 2, historically a bottom-forming condition.

Institutional Demand Remains The Weak Spot

Spot ETFs and corporate treasuries returned about 65,800 BTC in June, their worst month on record, according to Glassnode. Options markets show upside implied volatility at record lows near 23%, with Wintermute pricing Wednesday’s expected range between $63,454 and $64,749. Glassnode called the setup “priced for nothing and reacting to everything.”